Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Numbers I Like To See

Everyone's buzzing about the new Quinnipiac poll numbers that show Obama not only handily winning in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, but also have him up in Florida.

But there is one set of numbers out of Florida that I particularly like, via FiveThirtyEight:


If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. More frustratingly for McCain, he had spent the better part of three days in Florida earlier this month, hoping to raise doubts about Obama among Jewish voters. Although Quinnipiac does not break out the Jewish vote, Obama holds a 61-31 lead in Southeast Florida, where most of the state's Jewish population is concentrated.


Well, the bounce is either off the Jews or off the Cubans. I'm guessing it's probably not the Cubans just yet.

If we're up to 61% among old people in Boca Raton and West Palm Beach (the most skeptical of the Jewish voters), then Obama must actually be pulling in at least 70% of the Jewish vote elsewhere. Just like Obama's "Latino Problem", the "Jewish Problem" was just the result of a lack of information combined with bad stereotypes.


1 comments:

nm said...

Just like Obama's "Latino Problem", the "Jewish Problem" was just the result of a lack of information combined with bad stereotypes.

Um, no. Obama's "Jewish Problem" and "Latino Problem" never existed in the first place. They were dreamed up by conventionalwisdomtalkingheads because they fit with the narrative those folks have been peddling. And they have been kept going by wishfulthinkingrightwingers because they would have been very happy if the "problems" were real. But as far as reality goes, there has never been the teensiest piece of evidence to support the idea that Obama had either of these problems. Yes, it can be hard to get the talkingheads to move off their talking points. But that doesn't mean that the rest of the world needs to react as if they are true.