John McCain leads Barack Obama 51% to 36% in Tennessee, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. Though McCain has a strong advantage, his lead has been cut nearly in half since April.Two months ago, while Obama was still struggling to wrap up the Democratic Presidential Nomination, McCain led 58% to 31% in the Volunteer State. The current poll is the first conducted in the state since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race.
One other nugget of good news:
McCain leads 61% to 29% among men, but the candidates are essentially even among women. McCain draws support from 87% of Republicans and holds a two-to-one advantage among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 74% of Democrats.
So despite what a few crazy bloggers would have you believe, the Hillary supporters are holding and coming over to the more pro-woman candidate.
I'm realistic--I know that the odds of Obama winning Tennessee are fairly slim, not because of anything he's said or done but because of the way the state is trending. I'd rather him spend his resources on states where he has a better chance of winning--Wisconsin, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, etc. This could change if someone like Phil Bredesen were on the ticket, but I just don't think Bredesen helps Obama all that much outside of Tennessee. By the way, those of you who DO want to see Bredesen on the ticket, just remember this sentence--"The 49th Governor of the State of Tennessee, Ronald Ramsey!" If Bredesen becomes Vice-President, then we're stuck with Governor Ramsey for the next two years.
But, the fact that McCain's numbers here are at least trending downward is a good sign. If Obama can at least force McCain to spend money here, that would be the best realistic scenario.
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