New TN Presidential Poll Finally Released

(Cross-Posted at TennViews)

Someone (in this case, WSMV in Nashville) finally decided it was time to do a Presidential poll in Tennessee. It's about damn time! Of course, if they could have waited maybe three days later to do it, the results probably would have been far more accurate.

On the Republican side, the poll is basically worthless as it was done before Fred Thompson dropped out. Fred Thompson receives 25% of the vote, with Huckabee close behind with 24%, and 26% still undecided. I suspect that had they done this poll after Thompson dropped out, Huckabee wouldn't have nearly as much of a lead as Thompson's supporters would have spread out among Romney and McCain.

It does beg the question of how many people will vote for Thompson seeing that he's on the ballot, not caring that he's already dropped out. Anyone want to start taking bets on that? We could do it as a spread, like we do for the Super Bowl score.

On the Democratic side, I wish they'd do this again after South Carolina. The poll says what we already knew--Hillary's winning, but there are a large number of undecided voters. That is, in my opinion, good news for Obama--he'll have all of the momentum and the media buzz after South Carolina, and the final result is going to be far closer than what the poll is indicating now.

I'm not sure about where Edwards fits in here--barring an unexpectedly close second-place finish in South Carolina, I think he's more or less hit his ceiling in terms of how many more Democratic voters he's going to attract. I don't think he necessarily hurts Obama, especially not in West Tennessee, which is by far Obama's strongest area of support at this point. If anything, Edwards may be what holds Hillary down here. I get the sense that most people have made up their minds about whether or not they're going to vote for Hillary, so she will likely not get very much of that undecided bloc in the end. She has also hit her ceiling here. Obama's the only one who hasn't, which is what makes this primary so exciting.

So, in conclusion, you'll only hear me say this once, but...go Edwards!

UPDATE: Thinking about this further, the other good thing about Edwards staying in for now is that it forces economic issues to stay in the spotlight. Anyone who watched the Republican debate tonight knows that all they have on that is a set of tired talking points.

SEE? I am capable of saying something nice about Edwards!