We know that a Mike McWherter campaign will be difficult, but it certainly is not outside the realm of possibility to win:
At the outset, the veteran Alexander - a fixture on the statewide political stage for three years - is certainly a heavy favorite. But operatives on both sides of the fence say some polling has indicated the former governor could be vulnerable.
If so, McWherter will still need to run an almost flawless campaign. For starters, he will need a lot of money - say, $10 million or so. While McWherter says he's willing to put some of his own money into the race, it's doubtful that he can afford to self-finance a major share of campaign needs in the fashion of Bredesen or U.S. Sen. Bob Corker.
It would help him, of course, if the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee decides to make Tennessee a priority race. Tennessee Democrats think that's a real possibility, but the jury is still out.
McWherter would also need a bit of good luck. Say, for example, the failure of Fred Thompson's presidential campaign.
Consider that arch-conservatives in the Tennessee Republican base have never been all that enthusiastic about Alexander, who they see as too pragmatic and moderate on many matters. Such folks might be even more prone to stay at home on election day with Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney as the party's presidential standard-bearer.
On the other hand, they and Tennessee Republicans generally are forecast to be much more motivated to hit the polls if Thompson should emerge as the nominee.
In other words, Alexander could ride Thompson's coattails. Or McWherter could ride Giuliani's.
Given the current state of the Fred Thompson campaign, it is very possible that the latter scenario would occur. But riding Giuliani's coattails would not be enough to win. McWherter would have to raise a good deal of money, and more importantly, get his name recognition up. And all this will have to be done in a relatively short amount of time.
But the news out of that camp today makes me
a little concerned:
McWherter, who launched an exploratory campaign for the Senate last week, said he is all but certain to become a full-fledged candidate within three or four months.
Mr. McWherter. You are well within your right to discount anything I have to say. I'm by no means a professional. I'm just someone who's worked two campaigns, one as an intern and one as a half-step above an intern. Over that time, I've tried my best to observe the campaign professionals, to learn what they do and what advice they give. And I keep a blog that's not really read by anyone except for my relatives, a couple of other bloggers, and my friends in the UK. I'm no campaign expert. But Mr. McWherter, I need to tell you one thing:
YOU DO NOT HAVE THREE OR FOUR MONTHS.If you want the DSCC to get involved, then you're going to have to prove you're already a viable candidate. That means you've got to get a ground operation into place, start raising A LOT of money (even if you're going to throw your own money in), and get voters to know you. The time to do all this is NOT three or four months from now. Three or four months from now will put us smack in the middle of the Presidential primaries, and no one will be paying attention.
The time to do all of this is
NOW. Ideally, some of this should have been done over the summer. Part of the reason Harold Ford was able to raise as much money as he did was that he started in April of 2005, well over a year and a half before the election. And he had the benefit of not having to worry about name recognition, a luxury you don't have. But if you start now, if you hit the ground now, everyone will know who you are by next November.
You could always pull an Obama, by getting everything into place now, and waiting to announce until the end of the year. But that requires that you stay in the news up until then, and that you have a full-fledged ground operation well before then. And there's no reason not to, you've got a good message:
“But I think they’ve gotten on the wrong course in Washington and Lamar has been a part of that. George Bush and Dick Cheney didn’t do that on their own. Lamar has stood with them, again and again,” he said.
Lockstep Lamar. Keep saying it.
Finally, one more thing that gives me pause:
“I want to spend a lot of time in East Tennessee, getting a real handle on the level of support there. That would be determinative,” he said in an interview, adding that he already is comfortable with support in Middle and West Tennessee.
"Comfortable" is NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Of course we need a concerted effort in East Tennessee, Democrats win even when we just force the Republicans to fight for it. But that should not come at the expense of the base in West and Middle Tennessee. You have to make sure you've got the base securely locked down before you try to go after East Tennessee. That was one of Ford's fatal mistakes...he picked up some votes in East Tennessee, but rural West Tennessee stayed home. There is no reason to make that mistake again.
But it's up to you. I'm not the professional here.