Go West, Young Barack

A new Rasmussen poll indicates that Barack Obama has a six-point lead over John McCain in Colorado, while Hillary would lose there by three.

Honestly, if we can take Colorado and a few other Western or Midwestern states yet lose Kentucky or West Virginia, I won't lose one wink of sleep. It's important to remember that for all the hand-wringing over Obama's "inability" to win in Appalachia, many of those voters are only registered Democrats because that is the only game in town, and are for all intents and purposes Republicans. They're the last vestiges of the Dixiecrats. Meanwhile, Obama did just fine in the white, working-class state of Oregon.

Just look at the math. All Obama has to do is win the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Wisconsin, and Missouri (all of which are easily winnable for him, even states like Pennsylvania), and we have 272 electoral votes. Now, I wouldn't want Obama to just focus on those states--that's not what the 50-state strategy is about, and that would go against everything his campaign has stood for. But all of this hand-wringing over Appalachia is simply ridiculous.

Conflict Of Interest

A tale of lawyers, lobbyists, and corruption in general from the Nashville Scene, on the fight over closing a very small tax loophole to make up for some of the spending cuts in Bredesen's new budget:

“I kinda shrugged my shoulders and said, ‘OK, you don’t like it. Big deal. That’s $15 million. Find the money somewhere else.’ To which Odom responded, ‘Yeah, we ought to take it out of Wal-Mart or some other big out-of-state corporation.’ And I said, ‘OK, whatever you can make happen, Gary. Good luck.”

Pinkston, probably chortling to himself, then promptly pulled out his cell phone and left a voice mail for a friend who also happens to be the Tennessee flack for Wal-Mart. As Pinkston knew, Waller Lansden represents Wal-Mart as well as the May family.

“ ‘Hey,’ ” Pinkston recalls saying in the voice mail message, “I just wanted you to know that Tom Lee and your good friends over at Waller are trying to blow a hole in a tax bill that closes some loopholes for the very wealthy. That money is going to obviously have to come from somewhere else. And for the first time, I heard a legislative leader say that we ought to look to Wal-Mart to get it. Talk to you later.’ ”

Pinkston’s Wal-Mart friend then forwarded the voice mail to Waller Lansden, setting off alarm bells inside the law firm—which was suddenly faced with an obvious conflicting interest between deep-pocketed clients. That led to the next event in this little tale of treachery, when Pinkston says Waller Lansden started spreading the word through Legislative Plaza that Pinkston had been caught on tape doing something nefarious.

“At first I thought, ‘Was it a videotape? What was I doing?’ And then I found out it was that voice mail, and I said, ‘OK, whatever.’ I don’t say anything in voice mail or email that I would be afraid to see on the front page of the newspaper. Tom Lee comes up to me and starts wearing us out about this tax loophole that he’s trying to keep open. And he says, ‘We’ve got you on tape.’ And he says he’s going to make it public. And I said, ‘I heard. I know all about it. Go ahead and release that. Can I get a transcript, just as a courtesy?’

Read the whole thing to see the context behind it, how Tom Lee and the May family got involved in this.

Now, I know Tom Lee fairly well. I worked with him on two campaigns, for Harold Ford and for Karl Dean. To me, this does not sound like something he'd do--I've always seen him as an honest and upstanding person. But I don't know. I certainly hope it's not true. However, I should note that the May family is pretty much the driving force behind Nashville's Jewish Republican club.

If nothing else, this is kind of turning me off of being a lawyer. I should just go into intellectual property (which is becoming my standard answer to the constant "what kind of law do you want to do" question since I'm not sure yet myself but it just sounds interesting) so that I don't have to be involved in stuff like this.

Harold Ford Comeback?

They just asked Harold Ford about people voting along race lines on MSNBC, and asked about his election as well. His response:

"We lost our race in Tennessee, we'll come back and get it right another time."

Oh God, 2010 is going to be a bloodbath.

The Kentucky/Oregon/American Idol Finale Live-Blog

7:01 p.m.: Shockingly, MSNBC calls Kentucky for Hillary. The numbers are actually close right now with 13% in, but I'm hearing that's just off of Louisville (Louaville?) votes.

7:02 p.m.: Exit polls from MSNBC say that only 1/3 of Hillary voters will vote for Obama in Kentucky in November. And my guess is, only about 1/2 of them would vote for Hillary in November anyway.

7:05 p.m.: Don't forget, even as they keep screaming about how Obama can't win working class whites--Oregon is the 12th whitest state in the country (Kentucky is 13th) and has a lower per-capita income than the working-class paradigm state of Ohio.

7:20 p.m.: Had to restart my computer, can someone please restart Terry McAuliffe?

7:21 p.m.: Keith Olbermann asks McAuliffe if bringing up national security isn't a trojan horse designed to bring Obama down with Hillary. Ding ding ding ding!

7:22 p.m.: McAuliffe just said that the Republicans won't go after Hillary on national security. Hahahahahahahahahaha! Thanks for that Terry, I needed a laugh.

7:23 p.m.: Terry McAuliffe is off now, so back to what I had been typing before my Internets crashed. They had been discussing whether or not Obama will "declare victory" tonight, but I don't think he has any reason to say so explicitly, since it's a moot point.

7:25 p.m.: "Give Hillary the nomination because Bill Clinton won states like Kentucky and West Virginia in 1992 and 1996". I'm sorry, did Bill undergo a sex change, put on a pantsuit, and warp us all back 16 years while no one was paying attention? Because last I checked, they're not the same person.

7:26 p.m.: One of the big Hillary reasons for staying in the race is that she'll get a good turnout in Puerto Rico. On the other hand, they also argue that their claim to the nomination rests on the fact that they win "big states," the ones with more electoral votes. So how do you put that much emphasis on a state that has NO electoral votes, more than a smaller state that at least has some votes? Or is that one of those twists of logic that only makes sense when I put on my "Hillary-Clinton-Alternate-Universe-Hat"?

7:30 p.m.: Sean Braisted has an interesting exit poll statistic--apparently honesty is not a Kentucky value.

7:32 p.m.: I've asked this before, and I'll ask it again--why would anyone ask Harold Ford how you win an election?

7:34 p.m.: Scarborough asks Ford why voters were willing to listen to the message from Ford but not from Obama. Uh, Joe, they didn't. Yes, he went to campaign in East Tennessee. He still got his clock cleaned, and he didn't have the base to back him up. Obama's doing the smart thing by locking down his base now.

7:43 p.m.: 45% of Kentucky voters did say that Edwards' endorsement of Obama was a factor in his decision. I don't think Obama needed to do more than he did, but perhaps he could have sent Edwards there to campaign once or twice.

7:47 p.m.: 13 minutes till American Idol starts (Hillary's speech is at 8:30, I'll only flip to it if nothing's happening on AI), and I'm taking a break. I'm coming down from my wine buzz and now I'm kinda hungry.

7:57 p.m.: Tonight we are pairing a 2006 Dashboard Sauvignon Blanc from Marlborough, New Zealand with a Lemon Rosemary Chicken Kashi-brand Lean Cuisine. This wasn't from the wine tour, this was a bottle from the weekend that I need to finish before I start on the wine tour wines.

8:00 p.m.: American Idol time!

8:01 p.m.: Please tell me that they are not having Michael Buffer do the "Let's get ready to rumble" bit to kick off the show. Please tell me this is not happening. This show is so surreal now, it's as if they're taking a page from the Hillary handbook.

8:04 p.m.: Introductory bits, the Davids will be singing three songs each and you'll have four hours to vote. Go Cook!

8:05 p.m.: They're keeping the boxing motif going. It's only a matter of time before David Cook claims that he comes from a bigger state than Archuleta and therefore he should be the Idol.

8:07 p.m.: While we're STILL doing the introductory bits, take a look at these new Gallup poll numbers. Obama is SURGING among groups that he needed to do "better" among, now with the majority of women and Hispanic voters. I really like those Hispanic numbers, that bodes well for the future of the party.

8:08 p.m.: The reason why Cook should win is because he looks comfortable on the stage. Archuleta looks like he's about to wet himself.

8:13 p.m.: STILL with the boxing motif--art is imitating life. Clive Davis is picking the first songs.

8:14 p.m.: David Cook is singing "I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For." He's not going with the rocker thing here, but the arrangement is allowing him to show off his vocals.

8:16 p.m.: Not a perfect performance, but very good vocally. Randy and Paula like it, and Simon said it was phenomenal!

8:18 p.m.: Archuleta is singing "Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me." I know I'm biased, but when the two of them go up against each other, it's easy to tell who the stronger singer is. Archuleta is a great singer, but he doesn't have Cook's depth or range. And he still looks like he's about to wet himself.

8:21 p.m.: Randy liked it, Paula loved it and looks pretty loopy already, and Simon thought it's his best so far, and thinks that Round 1 goes to Archuleta. I'll admit, he did get better towards the end of that song, but I didn't think it was better than when he sang "Imagine".

8:24 p.m.: Hillary Clinton is now speaking. Blah blah blah, "You've never been invisible to me" (you know, except for the time before I ran for office). Back to American Idol commercials.

8:27 p.m.: While we're waiting, look at the 10-day forecast for Ithaca. The weather gets nice right as the parents show up for graduation. Like clockwork.

8:28 p.m.: They're using the songs from the songwriting competition. Trainwreck time!

8:29 p.m.: Perfect rock song for Cook. It sounds vaguely Nickelback-ish. He may be reaching a little bit on those high notes but I think it's ok.

8:32 p.m.: Randy says he "did the best with what he had", Simon thought it was just ok, and Paula doesn't understand how the songwriting competition works.

8:37 p.m.: Archuleta singing a slow ballad. Oh, the 13-year old screaming girls are going to love this.

8:40 p.m.: Is Paula even paying attention? I'm guessing not. The judges are liking David Archuleta better tonight.

8:45 p.m.: Cook is singing "The World I Know" by Collective Soul. This is a song I really like. It could go either way for him.

8:48 p.m.: Good arrangment, I'm worried he held back a little bit. Randy and Paula loved it, Simon thought it was the wrong choice.

8:51 p.m.: After the commercial break, David Archuleta will sing "Imagine." AGAIN. Why should he be rewarded for doing the same song twice? At least Cook was willing to take a risk with that song.

8:55 p.m.: He screwed up the lyrics of this song AGAIN. "Sharing for the world" makes no sense. It's either "Sharing ALL the world" or "Living FOR today", pick one.

9:13 p.m.: Computer screwed up again. Simon continued with the (incredibly stupid) Rocky routine, saying that Archuleta delivered a "knock-out". I personally don't think he should be rewarded for doing the same song twice. If you agree with me, vote for David Cook by calling 1-866 IDOLS 01 (or 03 or 05), or if you have AT &T, text "vote" to 5701.

9:18 p.m.: Oregon results don't come in until 11 my time. I'll start a new thread then. I'm taking a break from live-blogging until then.

Programming Update, 5-20-08

I'll be gone most of tomorrow on a Seneca Lake wine tour that the university is sponsoring for Senior Week (it's like "We just spent the last four years trying to make you have a breakdown, so have a drink on us now!"). This part of upstate New York is well-known as a wine-growing region, but they're best known for Riesling, which I actually don't particularly like...hopefully it all won't be ghastly sweet white wines.

But check back here tomorrow night for the Kentucky/Oregon/American Idol Finale Live-Blog! The timing actually works out quite nicely--American Idol will probably be over by the time the polls close in Oregon on East Coast time. Stay tuned!

Clinton Supporter Tries To Bribe YDA Superdelegates

Looks like we now know what will be the hot topic at the YDA conference in Nashville in two weeks:

One of Sen. Hillary Clinton's top financial supporters offered $1 million to the Young Democrats of America during a phone conversation in which he also pressed for the organization's two uncommitted superdelegates to endorse the New York Democrat, a high-ranking official with YDA told The Huffington Post.

Haim Saban, the billionaire entertainment magnate and longtime Clinton supporter, denied the allegation. But four independent sources said that just before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Saban called YDA President David Hardt and offered what was perceived as a lucrative proposal: $1 million would be made available for the group if Hardt and the organization's other uncommitted superdelegate backed Clinton.

But this isn't just a question of bribery, it's also a question of intimidation:

Members of the Young Democrats agonized about the potential fallout of Saban's call; his financial offer represented one-third of the group's 2008 budget. Democratic officials and fundraisers were consulted about how to respond, and at times the discussions were "emotional," one participant said. "It is scary for them, Haim is very powerful, he has great influence over donors who give to them."

Another source said that Hardt and others were acutely aware of Saban's status within Democratic circles and were concerned that their organization would suffer long-term harm if they declined his offer or if news of the proposal became public.

As we know, it didn't work--although one YDA superdelegate endorsed Clinton (several months ago), another one endorsed Obama just last week, and the third, YDA President David Hardt, has publicly stated that he won't endorse until after the primaries.

This is probably not something that Saban or the Clinton campaign can be prosecuted for, since it's not "vote-buying" in the legal sense. However, it just goes back to the clear pattern of the Clinton campaign trying to intimidate and belittle young voters, saying that our votes don't matter, that we're just voting for Obama because we're "uninformed," and trying to confuse whether or not students can vote in their college state's primaries. Now it's been laid bare that Clinton and her surrogates are willing to destroy the future of the Democratic Party just to get one more superdelegate vote.

I'm very pleased to see that the YDA leadership did not allow the organization to be dragged down into the muck with the pigs.

Obama's Stock Is On The Rise

And everyone should get on board right now, lest you miss this great investment:

FRANKFURT (AFP) - Warren Buffett, the world's richest man, is backing Barack Obama for US president and thinks current US economic policy will push the dollar lower against other global currencies

Buffett told a press conference here Monday he had offered support to both Obama and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but that since it appeared Obama would win the party's nomination, "I will be very happy if he is elected president.

"He is my choice," Buffett said.

The conservatives love to drag out George Soros everytime they need a boogeyman, but funny how they never mention how Warren Buffett, as the wealthiest man in the world, is a Democrat who supports the estate tax and has long criticized the disparity in tax rates, noting that he pays a smaller percentage of his income than does his receptionist.

Can we put him in charge of fiscal policy in the Obama Administration?

The Real John McCain

Brave New Films lays out in a succinct three minutes just how badly the "Straight Talk Express" has derailed:

Shabbat Shalom, Steve Cohen!

You have to love these numbers:

Steve Cohen (D-inc): 63
Nikki Tinker (D): 11
Joe Towns (D): 5
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Obviously, Memphis has finally figured out what's good for them.

Celebration In Rutherford Tonight!

Congratulations to the folks of Rutherford County who came together to oppose the (unconstitutional) monstrosity that was threatening to be forced down their throats by short-sighted government officials and greedy developers!

The Rutherford County Commission rejected a rezoning request for the proposed Bible Park USA in the Blackman community.

SafeHarbor Holding LLC, the park’s developer, was seeking rezoning of 282 acres north of state Route 840 and west of Florence Road from a residential zoning to a planned unit development to allow the construction of the park.

Nine commissioners voted against the rezoning and 12 vote for the rezoning, but that was not enough to make the two-thirds majority required.

It's a victory not only for Blackman residents who don't want that thing, but for everyone who opposes taxpayer dollars going to fund explicitly religious projects.

Why Does John McCain Hate Israel?

Obviously, if you favor engaging with Hamas in some form, then you must hate Israel, right?

I asked: "Do you think that American diplomats should be operating the way they have in the past, working with the Palestinian government if Hamas is now in charge?"

McCain answered: "They're the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them, one way or another, and I understand why this administration and previous administrations had such antipathy towards Hamas because of their dedication to violence and the things that they not only espouse but practice, so . . . but it's a new reality in the Middle East. I think the lesson is people want security and a decent life and decent future, that they want democracy. Fatah was not giving them that."

Here's the video:

But I guess this comment must have come from McCain's "maverick" days, before he threw common sense and rationality out the window so that the conservatives would like him.

I guess it's also excuseable because McCain is friends with John Hagee now, who as we all know can say anything he wants about Jews and get away with it because after all, he just loves Israel! You see, he had to apologize to Catholics because they're an important swing group, but he can say that Jews brought the Holocaust upon themselves and that we're spiritually dead, just as long as he prefaces it by saying how much he loves Israel:



Thinking about it further...the "not spiritually alive" comment seems to refer to the Jews in Israel specifically, who are mostly secular. In my humble opinion, that's further proof that these people do not love Israel for what it is now, a vibrant democracy that embraces freedom of speech and civil liberties, but for what they want it to be, a fundamentalist state that will play a role in the Rapture/Apocalypse. This is exploitation, and it's something that all American Jews should vigorously oppose.

UPDATE: What Sharon Cobb said.

Drip...Drip...Gusher

You know, John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama may not play that big of a role in the remaining contests. I can't see him automatically turning the numbers in Kentucky around, nor will it change the "white male" narrative.

But the endorsement may have an even more important effect:

At least six of John Edwards' pledged delegates in South Carolina will throw their support to Barack Obama following Edwards’ endorsement of the Democratic frontrunner, bringing the total number of delegates switching to Obama on Thursday to eight.

John Edwards has 19 total delegates, eight of them immediately went to Obama, and by the looks of it more of them may be coming along. And this is a delegate net gain that Hillary will not be able to answer. If he were to get all 19, or even most of them, it would more than negate West Virginia. For the remaining contests, Kentucky and Oregon will cancel each other out, and even if Hillary wins in Puerto Rico, that would likely be cancelled out by big Obama wins in Montana and South Dakota. So the delegates from John Edwards could be the ticket in pushing Obama over the top.

Looks like Edwards got to play king-maker after all...

90's Nostalgia Night

And no, I don't mean for Bill or Hillary Clinton.

That was sort of the theme of the party from tonight. I'm just curious, how many people remember this song?



I must have been 10 or 11 when this song came out. I had no idea what it really meant at the time, but it's a real kick hearing this song again.

And really, had this song come out today, it might have been a much bigger phenomenon. Because it would have been all over MySpace and YouTube before it even got on the radio.

So What'd I Miss?

This is pretty much the first time I've been on my computer today. Did anything important happen today? I heard something about Bill Hobbs stepping in it again and about Bush out-Godwinning Godwin himself, but I'm not sure...

This always seems to happen to me. The one day where I'm not at my computer, I'm actually out and about, being productive, getting stuff done, is the day that all hell breaks loose online. Although I guess I should consider that a good sign.

I'm actually on my way out again, to celebrate my friend getting into Harvard for grad school (he got into Haaaaaahvahd because he's wicked smaht). Commentary on all of these goings-on either later tonight or tomorrow morning, depending on how lucid I am after this party.

A Crucial Endorsement

Everyone is of course talking tonight about John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama, and what will now happen to Edwards' 18 delegates (going to Obama, by the looks of it). But there's another crucial contest happening right now, one that will be over next week. We've had many different candidates and months of voting, but we will finally have a winner next week.

I am, of course, referring to American Idol.

And I would like to officially endorse David Cook to be our next American Idol.

David Cook was not my original choice. I loved Jason Castro, with his beautiful eyes and how he took himself far less seriously than anyone else on the show. It was quite refreshing. Also, I'd imagine he'd be a lot of fun at parties.

But now that the contest is down to David Cook and David Archuleta, it is crucial that the spiky-haired rocker win this thing.

Let's look at David Archuleta. My problem with him is not that he's too young and inexperienced (because logically that would be inconsistent with everything else I've ever said on this blog, and he is experienced as his crazy stage dad has been pushing him into competitions like this his whole life). My problem with him is that he's creepy. Maybe it is his crazy stage dad, but David Archuleta looks like he's going to have a mental breakdown at any second. And although he's a good singer, it seems to knock him out--he can't speak normally without gasping for air every few words. He's kind of pathetic, really.

As for David Cook, the main reason that he should win is that America needs to atone for letting fellow rocker Chris Daughtry get voted off too early in Season 5. He was CLEARLY the best one, but instead the competition went to Taylor Hicks (and has anyone heard from him since then?). Granted, not winning American Idol was probably the best thing that ever happened to Daughtry, since it allowed him to go form his own band and release a bazillion singles. But he still should have won. David Cook is even better than Daughtry in that he's a lot more creative with his song arrangements. He could probably make a pretty good album, wheareas Archuleta's album would only appeal to screaming 13-year olds.

Don't screw this up America!